Business Political Insights BPI.GE
TBILISI(BPI)- According to the international organizations and the National Bank of Georgia (NBG), in 2020 the country’s economy will grow 4.5-5-5%, which is lower than projected for Armenia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
NBG published a new baseline scenario based on monetary tightening, according to which, economy will sustain this level of activity in the upcoming years. The foreign trade balance will keep improving, which will make a significant contribution to real GDP growth.
Apart from that, active infrastructure projects will increase demand in the local market.
the National Bank came to the conclusion that the tightening of monetary policy, which aims to reduce inflation to the target, will also negatively affect economic growth.
The basic scenario provides for economic growth at 4.5% in 2020, growth is projected to accelerate to 5% in 2021.
The same modest growth is predicted by international financial organizations – in particular, the UN forecasts Georgian economy to grow 4.5% in 2020 and an average of 3.7% in the region.
Russia has lower indicators (1, 8%) in the region, followed by Azerbaijan (2, 5%), Ukraine (3%), Belarus (2%), Moldova (3, 9%), Kazakhstan (3, 5%) .
The same growth forecast is for Kyrgyzstan – 4.5% while Armenia (5. 4%), Tajikistan (6%), Uzbekistan (5, 7%) and Turkmenistan (5. 6%) have higher economic growth forecast than Georgia.
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